2019年上半年生猪行业数据解读

亚洲通登陆

[Introduction] In the first half of the year, the national hog market performed well. After the strong hog price in February, the period from March to May was the stage of solid foundation, and the highest point in the first half of the year appeared in June. Piglets and white strips of meat are driven by their good atmosphere and have risen to varying degrees. This article starts with the price and focuses on the interpretation of the key monitoring data of the hog industry. Based on this, it predicts the development trend of the industry in the second half of the year.

The price of important products in the hog industry has risen significantly

In the first half of the year, the prices of pigs, white strips and piglets changed more consistently. They rose significantly in early March and were relatively stable from mid-March to mid-May. From January to June, the average price of ternary pigs in the country, the average ex-factory price of lean meat-type white meat, and the average price of piglets were 14.36 yuan/kg, 19.32 yuan/kg, and 640.58 yuan/head, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24.22%. 17.02%, 40.00%. Due to the spread of the southern epidemic in May-June, the breeding links were more cautious, pulling down the average price of piglets nationwide. Relatively speaking, the northern market is replenishing positively, the low-priced piglets in the south are supplemented, and the high price in the north raises the price of piglets nationwide.

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Slaughter industry operating rate is low

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From the data of the past three years, the operating rate of key enterprises has changed greatly before and after the Spring Festival, and the changes in other time periods are relatively flat, but there are many improvements before the Mid-Autumn Festival and the Spring Festival. From the trend in the first half of this year, the overall operating rate is at a low level, and there are signs of continued decline. From January to June, the average operating rate of key slaughter enterprises was 36.57%, which was nearly 2 percentage points lower than that of the same period in 2018 and nearly 1.5 percentage points lower than that in 2017. The highest value of 57.25% appeared in early January, and the lowest value appeared during the Spring Festival holiday. The main reasons for the decline in operating rates are the decline in the number of live pigs and the high inventory of frozen products.

Pork frozen stocks are at their highest level in the past three years

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xx卓创监测数据显示,今年上半年重点屠宰企业冷冻库存量持续上升,3月至6月更为明显。 1月至6月的平均储存量为32.16%,比2018年增加近13个百分点,比2017年增加15个百分点。库存主要集中在北方市场,社会库存水平处于较高水平。存储容量(猪肉冷冻库存)增加的主要原因是未来中国猪肉供应短缺将增加,进口量难以弥补。

猪肉进口“杯子和水”

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今年上半年,猪肉进口量大幅增加,1 - 5月份进口总量为658,200吨,同比增长19.81%,比2017年增长15.02%。其中,进口量5月份为187,500吨,同比增长62.55%。目前,非洲的猪瘟难以根除。卓创预计,2019年国内猪肉短缺量将达到800万至1000万吨。单靠进口难以弥补。未来,对肉类的需求将转移到家禽,蛋类,水产品和其他行业。相对而言,由于价格较高,牛肉和羊肉的价格略低。中国的肉类消费结构将发生重大变化,同时也带来了一定的投资机会。

全国生猪屠宰量同比下降

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卓创监测全国11个重点省份猪的体重,选择大型农场和屠宰厂。从图5可以看出,今年上半年,全国生猪屠宰体重先减后增加,平均值116.30千克,增加8.19千克。最高值为120.50千克,出现在6月中下旬,增加了4.48千克。如果繁殖过程保持正常的节奏,6月屠宰的重量季节性低。这也表明我国的生猪数量正在减少。据卓创统计,截至5月底,全国有能力母猪数量同比下降40.00%以上,生猪数量下降约40.00%。

生猪市场在下半年继续保持上升趋势

目前,非疫情继续在南方市场蔓延。只有两个湖泊的猪源相对丰富,国内生猪供应缺口有所扩大。下半年养猪市场将继续保持上行趋势,流通方向将维持“南猪北运”。建议经营者密切关注农业和农村部的有关文件,积极处理验血程序,确保猪的顺利运送。

作者:李霞;资料来源:卓创农业;农业期货重现这个网络只是为了传播更多的信息目的,并不意味着本网批准了该意见的文本。如果转载文章的作者认为本网站存在问题,请致电010-51289506与我们联系。本网站将立即与您协商并解决相关事宜。