[Introduction] In the first half of the year, the national hog market performed well. After the strong hog price in February, the period from March to May was the stage of solid foundation, and the highest point in the first half of the year appeared in June. Piglets and white strips of meat are driven by their good atmosphere and have risen to varying degrees. This article starts with the price and focuses on the interpretation of the key monitoring data of the hog industry. Based on this, it predicts the development trend of the industry in the second half of the year.
The price of important products in the hog industry has risen significantly
In the first half of the year, the prices of pigs, white strips and piglets changed more consistently. They rose significantly in early March and were relatively stable from mid-March to mid-May. From January to June, the average price of ternary pigs in the country, the average ex-factory price of lean meat-type white meat, and the average price of piglets were 14.36 yuan/kg, 19.32 yuan/kg, and 640.58 yuan/head, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24.22%. 17.02%, 40.00%. Due to the spread of the southern epidemic in May-June, the breeding links were more cautious, pulling down the average price of piglets nationwide. Relatively speaking, the northern market is replenishing positively, the low-priced piglets in the south are supplemented, and the high price in the north raises the price of piglets nationwide.
Slaughter industry operating rate is low
From the data of the past three years, the operating rate of key enterprises has changed greatly before and after the Spring Festival, and the changes in other time periods are relatively flat, but there are many improvements before the Mid-Autumn Festival and the Spring Festival. From the trend in the first half of this year, the overall operating rate is at a low level, and there are signs of continued decline. From January to June, the average operating rate of key slaughter enterprises was 36.57%, which was nearly 2 percentage points lower than that of the same period in 2018 and nearly 1.5 percentage points lower than that in 2017. The highest value of 57.25% appeared in early January, and the lowest value appeared during the Spring Festival holiday. The main reasons for the decline in operating rates are the decline in the number of live pigs and the high inventory of frozen products.
Pork frozen stocks are at their highest level in the past three years
今年上半年，猪肉进口量大幅增加，1 - 5月份进口总量为658,200吨，同比增长19.81％，比2017年增长15.02％。其中，进口量5月份为187,500吨，同比增长62.55％。目前，非洲的猪瘟难以根除。卓创预计，2019年国内猪肉短缺量将达到800万至1000万吨。单靠进口难以弥补。未来，对肉类的需求将转移到家禽，蛋类，水产品和其他行业。相对而言，由于价格较高，牛肉和羊肉的价格略低。中国的肉类消费结构将发生重大变化，同时也带来了一定的投资机会。